Stock futures rallied Monday because investors are excited about the July jobs report. They've been waiting all weekend for this data. Can't sleep. Can't eat. Just refreshing their brokerage apps and muttering about nonfarm payrolls like it means something.
The report drops Friday. Between now and then, futures will swing on seventeen other things that have nothing to do with employment. A Fed governor will cough during a speech. Someone will tweet about tariffs. Nvidia will move three percent for no reason and take the entire market with it.
By the time the jobs numbers actually print, every retail trader who spent the week "gearing up" will have already panic-sold twice and bought back in at a higher price.
Earnings reports are also coming. Key earnings reports. That's what they're called when you need to write a headline but don't want to specify which companies because that would require effort.
The technical setup here is flawless. Futures go up before data. Data comes out. Futures go down. Algos front-run the algos that front-run the algos. Some guy in New Jersey with a Robinhood account buys calls at the top because his brother-in-law said the chart looked bullish.
None of this has anything to do with jobs. The July employment number could come in at twelve million or negative four hundred thousand and the market would do exactly what it was going to do anyway. The headline might change. The price action won't.
Retail traders will spend the week analyzing the data. They'll watch CNBC. Read Bloomberg. Check their horoscopes. Then they'll buy at resistance and sell at support like they always do, convinced this time they cracked the code.
The jobs report is noise. Earnings are noise. The rally is noise. The only thing that matters is whether you bought before the institutions did, and you didn't, because you were too busy gearing up.
Photo by Anne Nygård on Unsplash
Leave a Comment