Trump called off strikes on Iran. Then scheduled talks for Monday. The sequence matters here because apparently we negotiate better when the other guy knows we almost turned his radar installations into abstract art.
This is diplomacy now. Wave the hammer. Put down the hammer. Shake hands. Every retail trader with a defense stock portfolio just experienced whiplash severe enough to qualify as a workplace injury.
The peace proposal wants everyone back at the table to work through thorny issues. Thorny translates to we still hate each other but the alternative is explaining to our constituents why gas costs forty dollars a gallon. Nothing builds trust like I was going to bomb you but decided you are worth talking to instead.
Iran gets to show up Monday knowing the missiles were loaded and ready. That is the geopolitical equivalent of your boss scheduling a performance review right after you see him update your replacement's job posting on LinkedIn. Really sets a collaborative tone.
The strikes got called off with ten minutes to spare according to reports that may or may not be exaggerated for dramatic effect. But sure, let us all pretend the Lockheed Martin calls you panic-bought at market open were based on sound technical analysis and not because you saw a Reuters alert while sitting on the toilet.
Talks resume Monday. The thorny issues remain thorny. The warring parties will return to argue about the same things they argued about before someone greenlit an airstrike. Progress looks like running in a circle but calling it a victory lap.
Your defense stocks are back where they started, minus the commission you paid to chase headlines you did not understand.
Photo by sina drakhshani on Unsplash
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