Trump called off strikes on Iran. Then scheduled peace talks for Monday. The man treats military operations like a dentist appointment you can reschedule if something better comes up.
The proposal calls for warring parties to return to negotiations and work out thorny issues that derailed diplomatic efforts. Thorny issues is diplomat-speak for we cannot agree on anything but nobody wants to say that out loud on camera. The parties will sit in a room and pretend the previous talks did not collapse for the exact same reasons these talks will collapse.
Retail traders saw this headline and immediately bought defense contractors, then sold them, then bought oil futures, then sold those too. They moved their entire portfolio four times in six minutes. Each trade cost them $6.99 in fees. They are now down $140 on a news story that will be irrelevant by Tuesday.
The planned strikes were called off. Just like that. Billions of dollars in military logistics coordinated across multiple time zones, and someone hit the brakes like they were canceling a pizza delivery. The Pentagon spent more on planning those strikes than you will earn in your lifetime, and it all got tossed because talks are resuming. Monday specifically. Not Sunday. Not Tuesday. Monday works for everyone's calendar apparently.
Iran and the United States will sit down and discuss their differences. They will make no progress. They will schedule another meeting. The headline will say talks continue. Retail traders will buy something stupid. The cycle repeats until everyone involved dies of old age.
None of this matters for your portfolio. The S&P does not care about diplomatic breakthroughs that will not happen. But you will trade on it anyway because you saw the word Iran and got scared.
Monday's talks will accomplish exactly what Friday's canceled airstrikes would have: nothing measurable, but at least fewer people die and you lose less money.
Photo by sina drakhshani on Unsplash
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