Russian forces figured out Ukraine's running low on ballistic missile interceptors. Took them two and a half years. That's the kind of strategic brilliance that makes retail traders look like Warren Buffett.
The solution here is obvious. Ukraine needs to issue bonds backed by the future value of not getting blown up. Slap an ESG label on it. Watch pension funds pile in. Every boomer with a Schwab account can finally tell themselves they're making a difference while earning 4.2% annually.
Missile strikes are up. Interceptors are down. This is what quants call negative correlation. Also what normal people call a f*cking problem. But at least the technicals look clean. RSI's oversold on the hope index. MACD crossed bearish on the "maybe Putin stops" indicator three winters ago.
Some analyst on CNBC will call this a buying opportunity. Not for Ukraine. For defense contractors. Raytheon's chart looks bullish if you squint and ignore the part where people die. But that's priced in. Everything's priced in when you're a sociopath with a Bloomberg terminal.
Winter's coming. Game of Thrones already used that line. Didn't help them either. At least they had dragons. Ukraine's got Javelin missiles and a prayer that Congress doesn't get distracted by a TikTok ban.
The retail crowd will read this headline and wonder if there's a way to trade it. There is. It's called doing literally anything else with your money. Open a savings account. Buy a sandwich. Set cash on fire for warmth. All better risk-adjusted returns than whatever dogsh*t Ukrainian reconstruction SPAC some former congressman's nephew is about to launch.
Russia's strategy is to bomb infrastructure until the lights go out and people freeze. Ukraine's strategy is to not have that happen. Compelling stuff. Really makes you think about your position in small-cap value.
Photo by Ε½ilvinas Ka on Unsplash
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