Twenty commercial ships got attacked near the Strait of Hormuz in a month. Tankers, mostly. Oil exports rebounding through the choke point now face stepped-up Iranian attacks. The financial media wants you to panic about oil prices. They want you to buy energy stocks. They want you to trade volatility like it means something.
It doesn't.
Here's what happened: Iran decided attacking tankers was back in fashion. Twenty vessels became target practice. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a third of seaborne oil passes, turned into a shooting gallery. Oil exports that were recovering now sail through waters where Iranians apparently have standing orders to f*ck with anything that floats.
Retail traders saw the headline. They read "vulnerable oil exports" and immediately started googling which ETF tracks crude. They convinced themselves this was the trade. The obvious play. Iran attacks ships, oil goes up, they buy calls, they retire early.
These same people lost money on COVID masks, lumber futures, and that week everyone thought inflation was transitory. Now they're maritime security analysts. Geopolitical experts. They can't find the Strait of Hormuz on a map but they know exactly how Iranian tanker attacks will affect Brent crude three months from now.
The technical pattern on oil hasn't changed. The chart looked like garbage before the attacks. It looks like garbage after the attacks. Twenty ships burning in the Persian Gulf changes nothing about the fact that crude has been trading in the same range since your neighbor's dog was a puppy.
But sure, buy energy stocks because Iran found out tankers make excellent target practice. I'm sure this time the geopolitical crisis trade works out for everyone who got their analysis from a two-sentence news summary and a TikTok video about war premiums.
Photo by Planet Volumes on Unsplash
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