Japan's core inflation crept up in June. First increase since March. The culprit? Oil prices went higher. Economists saw this coming. They predicted 1.6% growth. They nailed it. Congratulations to everyone who can read a futures contract.
Oil prices rose so inflation rose. This counts as financial news in 2026. A commodity that powers the entire global economy got more expensive and then the things made with that commodity also got more expensive. Someone alert the Nobel committee. Actually don't. That's on the banned list.
Retail traders are currently refreshing their newsfeed apps trying to figure out if this means they should buy Japanese yen or sell Japanese yen or perhaps start a position in crude oil futures with their $347 in buying power. The answer is none of those things. The answer is always none of those things. But they'll do something anyway because doing nothing feels like losing even though doing something is how you actually lose.
The four-year low happened before this. Now the number went up from the four-year low. Japan's central bank will continue doing whatever Japan's central bank does while everyone pretends the data matters. The charts don't care about core inflation. The charts care about where the next sucker places a market order.
Economists polled by Reuters got their prediction right which means absolutely nothing about their next prediction. A broken calendar is right twice a year. These guys just happened to guess correctly that when energy costs more the things that require energy also cost more. They probably felt very smart filling out that survey.
Your technical levels haven't moved. Your stop losses are still where you put them. Japan's inflation rate climbing 0.1% doesn't change the fact that you bought the top again.
Photo by ALEXANDRE LALLEMAND on Unsplash
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