The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October nonfarm payrolls report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Eight-thirty. Not eight-twenty-nine. Not eight-thirty-one. Traders will stare at a clock like it owes them rent.
Here is everything to expect. A number will appear. It will be too high, too low, or just right. Each outcome will be called a surprise by people paid to not be surprised.
Economists will have forecast it. Then the government will revise it. Then it will be revised again. A figure that gets rewritten twice is not data. It is a rough draft with a security clearance.
The retail trader will wake at 8:29 with a leveraged position and a prayer. He will refresh a browser tab 40 times. The number will print. His account will do something sudden. He will call it manipulation. It was arithmetic.
Here is my own forecast for the October jobs report. Some jobs were added, or lost. Someone on television will say "mixed." Then he will point at a chart.
I read charts for a living. The chart already knew. The chart always knows. The chart also does not care about your feelings, which makes it the best coworker I have ever had.
By 8:31 a.m., the market will have moved. By 8:45, it will have moved back. By noon, an anchor will explain why, with total confidence and zero accountability.
If you need a government spreadsheet to decide whether to buy a stock, your portfolio is already a labor statistic.
Photo by Zulfugar Karimov on Unsplash
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