The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5% this week. Kevin Warsh made comments about inflation. Kevin Warsh is not the Fed Chairman. Kevin Warsh has never been the Fed Chairman. Jerome Powell is the Fed Chairman. Jerome Powell has been the Fed Chairman since 2018. But sure, let's call Warsh "Chairman" in the headline. Why not. Facts are for people who don't trade on their phones during lunch breaks.
The Fed hiked rates and yields climbed. Groundbreaking stuff. A central bank raises rates and bond yields go up. Next you'll tell me water is wet and retail traders are holding leveraged ETFs they don't understand.
Warsh highlighted inflation risks. He does this a lot. He's been highlighting inflation risks since before most Robinhood users knew what inflation was. He highlighted them in 2008. He highlighted them in 2010. He's probably highlighting them right now while you're reading this. The man loves a good inflation risk. It's his thing. Like how some people collect stamps or lose money on options expires.
The technical picture here is crystal clear. A line went up. That line has a number next to it. The number is 5. People who watch financial news all day think this number means something about their future. It doesn't. The chart looked exactly like this in 2007. Different reasons. Same panic. Same idiots buying the dip on long-dated bonds because their uncle forwarded them a YouTube video.
Warsh isn't even at the Fed anymore. He left in 2011. That's fifteen years ago. He's just a guy now. A guy with opinions about inflation. We all have those. The difference is CNBC puts his on television and yours go in the group chat where Brad pretends to read them.
The yield curve doesn't care about your student loans.
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