Kpler Predicts Thing Might Happen But Also Might Not

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could quickly increase if the U.S.-Iran deal gets implemented. Could. That's the word doing all the work here. Kpler said it. Analysts nodded. Everyone collected a paycheck.

The Strait of Hormuz reopening is apparently a big deal because twenty percent of global oil passes through there. Or used to. Before the war. Which war? Doesn't matter. The point is tankers might go back through. Or they might not approach prewar levels. Kpler was very clear about being unclear on this.

Retail traders are currently refreshing their brokerage apps wondering if they should buy oil futures or sell them based on this headline. The correct answer is neither. The Strait could reopen tomorrow and crude could still dump because Saudi Arabia sneezed or a hedge fund algorithm decided Tuesday rhymes with sell-day. But that won't stop some guy in Minnesota from longing USO at market open because he read tanker traffic might increase.

Kpler specializes in tracking global commodities and providing ship-tracking data that no human being should care about unless they own a tanker. They've now told us that if a geopolitical deal happens then boats might go through a strait more often but also maybe not as much as before. This is the kind of precision that makes technical analysis look like particle physics.

The U.S.-Iran deal might get implemented. It might not. If it does, tankers might transit. They might not hit old numbers. Oil prices might react. They might ignore it completely. Your portfolio might benefit. It definitely won't.

The only certainty here is that Kpler will release another report next month saying the exact same thing with slightly different words and financial media will cover it like it's the Zapruder film. Traders will trade it. Algos will front-run the traders. Everyone will pretend the Strait of Hormuz headline mattered while price does whatever it was going to do anyway.

Somewhere a technical analyst is drawing a trendline that doesn't give a f*ck about Iran.

Photo by Amin Zand Miralvand on Unsplash