The NATO Summit heated up this week. Tensions rose between the U.S. and its allies. Diplomats argued about things that matter. Retail traders checked their phones and wondered why their call options weren't printing.
Strikes hit Iran. The ceasefire collapsed. Someone launched missiles at someone else. The exact details don't matter because technical analysts don't trade headlines. We trade horizontal support levels drawn by a guy named Derek who got fired from a Wendy's in 2019 for eating fries out of the fryer.
Le Pen returned to French politics. She's back. France noticed. The euro moved three basis points. Somewhere in New Jersey, a day trader with a $1,200 account saw this headline and immediately opened a leveraged position on EUR/USD because he watched half of a YouTube video about forex once. He will lose everything by Thursday.
Here's what matters. None of this matters. NATO could disband tomorrow and the S&P 500 would gap up because Apple announced a new charging cable. Iran could sink an aircraft carrier and futures would bounce off the 50-day moving average like it was made of rubber. Le Pen could become Supreme Chancellor of Europe and the only thing retail traders would care about is whether it's bullish for their Robinhood account.
Geopolitical risk is a myth invented by CNBC producers who need something to say between commercials for investing apps. Wars start. Wars end. Alliances fracture. Alliances reform. The chart doesn't care. The 200-day moving average has never read a newspaper. It just sits there being a line that some dead guy invented in the 1960s, and we all pretend it predicts the future.
You want to know what moved the market today? Nothing moved the market today. The market moved itself. It always does. NATO didn't do it. Iran didn't do it. Le Pen sure as f*ck didn't do it. But tomorrow some guy on television will explain exactly why all of this mattered, and you'll believe him because you're desperate for the world to make sense.
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