Jensen Huang says he sees no memory glut by 2029. "You can always use more." Sage advice from a man who sells you the thing that needs the memory.
Memory stocks got hammered this past week. Huang appeared on CNBC to soothe them. Soothe is a strong word. He told them nothing is wrong, in a leather jacket.
Consider the forecast. Three years out. Memory has been cyclical since the invention of memory. Shortage, glut, shortage, glut. Every cycle, someone in a nice jacket says this time the cycle is over. The cycle has never once read the memo.
Huang's logic is elegant. You can always use more. By that standard, you can always use more of anything. More sandwiches. More divorces. More Nvidia.
Notice who gains if you believe him. Nvidia's chips run on high-bandwidth memory. Memory makers feel better, Nvidia's supply chain feels better, and your brokerage app feels better until Thursday. The man is not predicting the weather. He is selling the umbrella and the rain.
Retail traders will read this and buy memory stocks on the dip. They will call it conviction. It is a reflex, like a knee, but with a margin call.
Technical analysis offers a view. The chart shows memory stocks went down this week. Huang says the future is bright. One of those is a price. The other is a CEO talking.
Is 2029 a real date? Nobody knows what they're having for lunch in 2029. Huang is forecasting memory demand for a year when your current phone will be a paperweight and your current portfolio will be a story you tell at parties.
Hold your memory stocks if you like. They'll be there in 2029, right next to your gym membership and your dignity.
Photo by BoliviaInteligente on Unsplash
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