Palantir spent nine months in a bear market. The stock went down. People lost money. Now those same people think earnings will fix everything because options traders are placing bets.
Options traders place bets on literally everything. They bet on bankrupt companies. They bet on penny stocks run by convicted fraudsters. They bet on SPACs with no revenue and a PowerPoint deck. The existence of options activity means nothing except that someone with a Robinhood account figured out how to navigate to the derivatives tab.
The article compares Palantir to Microsoft. Microsoft went from $60 to $20 after the dot-com crash and took seven years to recover. Then it spent another decade going sideways before Satya Nadella showed up and turned it into a cloud company. Palantir sells software to the government and has a CEO who talks about philosophy. These things are not the same.
But sure. Let's say options traders know something. Let's say the person who bought a $30 call expiring Friday has unlocked the secret to Palantir's future. That person is definitely not the same guy who lost his rent money on GameStop calls and is now trying to get it back before his landlord notices.
The "Microsoft-style comeback" framing does heavy lifting here. It suggests Palantir is undervalued and poised for a decade-long run. It could also mean Palantir will trade sideways for twelve years while shareholders convince themselves that any day now the stock will do something.
Nine months is not a bear market. It's a normal amount of time for a stock to go down after it went up too much. Calling it a bear market makes it sound like a temporary problem that will solve itself. Sometimes stocks just suck.
The options market says Palantir might go up after earnings. The options market also said Tesla would hit $1,500 by last Christmas. One of you is holding those calls and lying about it.
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