The chief executive of Saudi Aramco announced that global oil stockpiles might take two years to rebuild. Two years. Not two weeks. Not two months. Two full rotations around the sun while you pay more at the pump and pretend you understand supply chains.
He blamed the U.S.-Iran war. Fair enough. Wars tend to disrupt things. But here's what matters for your technical analysis: none of this changes the chart. Oil goes up. Oil goes down. The CEO of the world's largest oil company telling you it goes up means absolutely nothing you couldn't have learned from a 200-day moving average and a dartboard.
Retail traders heard this headline and immediately started googling "how to buy oil stocks" and "is USO a good investment right now." They will buy at the top. They will panic sell at the bottom. They will blame Saudi Aramco's CEO for not warning them sooner, despite him literally warning them right now.
The CEO said the squeeze could worsen. Could. Might. Possibly. Maybe. Perhaps. These are the words of a man who knows you will trade on this information anyway. He could have said oil stockpiles will be replenished by a team of trained dolphins juggling barrels across the Atlantic and someone would still open a position based on it.
Two years is 730 days. That is 730 opportunities for another CEO to say something different. That is 730 chances for the war to end or escalate or pivot to somewhere else entirely. That is 730 days of you checking your portfolio and wondering why the news didn't save you.
The Saudis will be fine. Iran will be fine. The oil will eventually show up. Your account balance will not recover as quickly.
Photo by Adhitya Sibikumar on Unsplash
Leave a Comment