Smarkets is entering the U.S. market by applying to be both a prediction market and a sportsbook. They're covering more bases than a guy who bought puts and calls on the same strike because he "saw unusual options activity."
The strategy makes sense if you squint. Prediction markets might get banned tomorrow. Sports betting might get regulated into oblivion next week. So why not apply for every license available and see which bureaucrat blinks first. It's the corporate equivalent of ordering everything on the menu because you can't decide what you want.
This UK exchange watched Kalshi and Polymarket fight the CFTC for months and thought "you know what this needs? More regulatory uncertainty." Nothing says confident market entry like simultaneously applying to let people bet on football games and election outcomes in states where half the lawmakers think both should be illegal.
The federal level remains a glorious mess of contradictory signals and agencies that hate each other. Smarkets looked at this dumpster fire and said "perfect timing." They're like the guy who shows up to a bar fight with two different weapons because he's not sure which one is legal.
Here's what retail traders will do with this information: absolutely nothing useful. They'll open accounts on every platform. Bet on the same outcomes across three different exchanges. Complain about the vig. Then lose money in ways that would impress a Renaissance mathematician.
The real innovation here is Smarkets realizing Americans will bet on literally anything if you put odds on it. Elections, sports, whether it'll rain next Tuesday. We're one approval away from futures contracts on how many times your cousin says "actually" at Thanksgiving.
Smarkets joins a race where nobody knows the finish line, the rules change mid-lap, and half the runners might get disqualified for reasons that won't be explained until 2028.
Photo by James Yarema on Unsplash
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