South Korea's finance minister just told the world that semiconductor demand will stay strong through next year. Maybe longer. Supply is tight. Growth is guaranteed. At least through 2027.
This announcement arrived during a global chip sell-off. Stocks tanking. Panic spreading. Perfect timing to promise another year of prosperity in the exact sector currently getting its face ripped off.
The finance minister did not specify which supply he meant. Could be the supply of chips. Could be the supply of finance ministers willing to make predictions during a market rout. Both seem artificially constrained.
Here's what tight supply actually means: South Korea manufactures semiconductors. South Korea's finance minister says semiconductor demand will remain solid. A butcher just told you beef prices are heading higher. Wild that he'd say that. Really unexpected analysis from a guy whose entire economy depends on you believing him.
Retail traders already started buying chip stocks again. Saw the headline. Figured a government official wouldn't lie about market conditions. These are the same people who think a CEO saying we're excited about Q4 means the company found extra revenue instead of extra synonyms for we're f*cked.
The global chip sell-off happened for a reason. Could be oversupply concerns. Could be demand destruction. Could be that every sector eventually mean-reverts and semiconductors spent two years trading like they cured cancer. But sure, South Korea's finance minister sees something everyone else missed. He's different. He's special. He definitely doesn't have a national interest in propping up Samsung's stock price.
Supply stays tight until it doesn't, growth lasts forever until it stops, and finance ministers keep talking until someone asks them to put their pension fund where their mouth is.
Photo by Chris Boland on Unsplash
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