Trump looked at Exxon Mobil's earnings report and decided the number was too big. Not illegal. Not unethical. Too big. Like a toddler pointing at a giraffe.
Chevron made money selling oil when oil prices went up. Revolutionary stuff. The guy who ran casinos into the ground now thinks he understands margin compression in the upstream sector. He doesn't know what downstream means. He thinks midstream is a Netflix plan.
The windfall is fueling fresh political backlash. That's the actual quote. A windfall. From selling a commodity during a supply shock. Retail traders heard "windfall" and immediately bought calls on companies Trump mentioned by name. They think negative attention from a former president is bullish. These are the same people who bought Hertz at $6 because bankruptcy sounds like a turnaround story.
What will the supermajors do with the money? Buy back stock. Pay dividends. Drill more holes. The same thing they've done since 1870. But now Trump's mad about it, so every financial outlet needs to pretend this is a story. It's not a story. It's a man yelling at a number.
Exxon's CEO will not return Trump's calls. Chevron's CEO will not adjust guidance based on a Truth Social post. The oil stays in the ground until the price justifies the lift cost. Trump can hold a press conference about it. The Permian Basin will not care.
Retail bought energy stocks at the top because Trump said they made too much money, which they interpreted as confirmation of a trend. The trend already reversed. They're holding bags full of crude they can't refine.
Photo by Igor Omilaev on Unsplash
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