Trump says he'll soon decide whether to "make a deal" with Iran or "finish it off." Two options. One of them is a deal.
This is the foreign policy equivalent of a man standing at a buffet, staring at the salad and the flamethrower.
Notice the word "soon." Not Tuesday. Not "after lunch." Soon. The same word your contractor uses about your kitchen.
Retail traders heard "soon" and did what they always do. They opened a brokerage app, ignored the phrase "Middle East," and bought crude oil calls expiring Friday. Their research consisted of a headline and a feeling. The feeling was a cousin's group chat.
Here is the technical analysis. The chart shows a line. The line goes up when Trump says "finish it off." The line goes down when he says "deal." The line goes sideways when he says "we'll see." He has said all three this week. The line now resembles a seismograph at a Tool concert.
Iran, for its part, has been asked to wait while one man chooses between diplomacy and the other thing. Tehran presumably checks the calendar the way you check a lump.
Analysts will call this "binary risk." Binary means two outcomes. Retail traders will find a third, which is losing money both ways. It's their specialty. They'd lose on a coin flip with a two-headed coin.
Your portfolio is not a hedge against geopolitics. It is a hostage. And the hostage taker is deciding between a handshake and a demolition, live, on camera, in no particular hurry.
Buy the deal, sell the deal, short the finish. Whatever you pick, a man in a golf shirt will undo it by lunchtime, and your stop-loss will be a prayer.
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