Trump says U.S. growth could hit 20%. The economy has done this once since 1945. That was 1950. Korea started and we made a lot of tanks.
The odds of hitting 20% GDP growth in 2026 are slightly worse than finding a retail trader who can explain what GDP actually measures. Both involve magical thinking. Both require ignoring every available data point. Both end with someone losing money they didn't have.
Trump wants the Fed to ignore inflation while growth supposedly rockets to levels last seen when half the country worked in factories that no longer exist. This is the economic equivalent of asking your doctor to ignore your heart rate while you sprint up a mountain. Sure, the number looks fun. The landing does not.
Seventy-six years separate us from the last time this happened. Seventy-six years. That's closer to the Civil War than it is to today. We've had fifteen recessions since then. We've had stagflation, dot-com bubbles, housing crashes, and a global pandemic. Not once did we sniff 20%. But this time will be different because a guy who bankrupted three casinos says so.
The technical setup here is flawless. Draw a line from 1950 to now. Extrapolate forward. Ignore the seventy-six years of data suggesting this will not happen. Buy calls. Watch them expire worthless. Blame the Fed. Repeat until broke.
Retail traders are currently Googling whether 20% growth means their $83 RobinHood account becomes $100 or $1,660.
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