Trump and Xi met in Washington. They promised to meet two more times this year. The financial press called this a breakthrough. Traders bought everything not nailed down. Futures ripped. Someone rang a bell somewhere.
The entire market now hinges on whether two septuagenarians can sit through three full meetings without falling asleep or starting a trade war. Again. Your retirement account depends on Xi not checking his phone during the second summit. Your kids' college fund rides on Trump remembering which country he's negotiating with by meeting number three.
Analysts keep using the phrase "tangible outcomes." They mean it as a condition for success. What they're actually describing is the thing that will never happen. These men will shake hands three times. They'll sign a framework for discussing a roadmap to considering preliminary talks about a potential agreement. Markets will pretend this matters.
Retail traders already priced in world peace. They're long on optimism and short on reading comprehension. The headline said "truce" so they bought calls on everything with a ticker symbol. One guy mortgaged his house to go long on soybeans because he heard China mentioned once.
The smart money knows how this ends. Meeting two gets postponed because someone tweeted something stupid. Meeting three gets canceled entirely. The "tangible outcomes" turn out to be a photo op and a joint statement about cooperation that means absolutely nothing. But sure, restructure your entire portfolio based on a dinner schedule.
Three meetings. Zero outcomes. Infinite confidence from people who think summits change anything. The truce will hold until it doesn't, which will be approximately whenever one of them gets bored or needs a poll bump. Your technical indicators saw none of this coming because they can't chart diplomatic bullshit.
Photo by Igor Omilaev on Unsplash
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