The September jobs report drops Friday. Wall Street expects 84,000 new jobs. This number was arrived at through a process called "pulling shit out of thin air and calling it consensus."
Economists surveyed. Models consulted. Historical data analyzed. Then someone averaged the guesses and presented it as science. The actual number will be 127,000 or 43,000 or negative 2,000. Doesn't matter. Your portfolio moves based on whether the wrong number was higher or lower than the other wrong number everyone agreed to pretend was accurate.
Retail traders will spend Thursday night reading previews. Studying charts. Setting limit orders based on expected volatility. They believe preparation matters. They think the jobs number means something about jobs. That the report reflects economic reality rather than seasonal adjustments massaging birth-death models through a proprietary black box that hasn't been updated since 2009.
The number prints. Markets move. CNBC brings out the guy with the strong opinion. He explains why 84,000 jobs proves his thesis from six months ago. If the number is 150,000 he will explain why that also proves his thesis. He has never been wrong because he has never actually said anything.
Here's what to expect: a number. Five digits probably. Could be six if you count the comma. The number will be revised twice over the next two months. Each revision will spark new analysis. New trades. New opportunities for you to get f*cked by people who knew the revision was coming because they paid for the data feed you can't afford.
The summer closed. Jobs were created or they weren't. Your technical levels don't care which.
Photo by Sasun Bughdaryan on Unsplash
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