Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term as Texas governor. The prediction markets still like him. They just like him less.
,On October 14, Abbott traded at 78% on Kalshi., ,Kalshi now prices him at 62%., That is sixteen points in three weeks. Somebody out there is calling this a trend.
The challenger is Democrat Gina Hinojosa. ,The final NYT/Siena poll has the race at 48-47., That is a one-point gap. The margin of error could swallow it, the poll, and your lunch.
Here is the part I love. ,Abbott spent most of 2025 priced near 90%., Nothing happened to him. He has been governor the whole time. The only thing that moved was a crowd of strangers with a brokerage app and a hunch.
Consider the people on the other side of that 38-cent contract. They are not political scientists. They are men who bought Hinojosa at 25 cents because a podcast sounded confident. Now they feel like Nate Silver. They are not Nate Silver.
These markets are thin. ,Polymarket's governor market has about $2.3 million in volume., That is roughly the cost of one mid-sized Texas megachurch parking lot. Your price discovery is a parking lot.
I read a chart of this. Line goes down. Then line goes slightly less down. A technician would call that a "consolidation." A Texan would call it Tuesday.
Abbott is still the favorite. A 62% favorite loses roughly four times in ten. If you trade that as a lock, congratulations. You have confused a coin with a personality.
Election Day is tomorrow. The market will be right or it will be wrong. Either way, someone on a trading forum will claim they called it, and their wife will nod politely.
Hinojosa traders are up sixteen points and have never felt more alive. Abbott traders are down sixteen points and have never been less informed. Both groups will still be wrong about something by Wednesday.
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