Brent crude jumped above $90 because Iran fired ballistic missiles at U.S. forces and Trump said he'd hit them hard. Not because of a head-and-shoulders pattern. Not because the RSI was oversold. Because rockets.
The geopolitical risk premium priced itself in faster than you could draw a Fibonacci retracement. Which makes sense. Fibonacci died in 1250. He never accounted for hypersonic weapons.
Retail traders spent the morning scrambling to Google "Iran oil production capacity" after spending the previous six months memorizing support levels at $87.50. Turns out those support levels meant f*ck-all when actual military support was getting targeted in the Persian Gulf.
Trump threatened to hit Iran hard. Oil went up. This required no technical analysis whatsoever. No MACD divergence. No volume confirmation. Just basic cause and effect that a Golden Retriever could understand.
The 50-day moving average did not predict this. The 200-day moving average did not predict this. The guy who posts daily Elliott Wave counts on Twitter definitely did not predict this. But everyone will pretend they saw it coming by Tuesday.
Iran launched the attack. The United States is obviously involved. These are countries with militaries and nuclear ambitions, not candlestick patterns you can backtest on TradingView.
Oil volatility spiked because geopolitical instability makes supply chains unreliable. Revolutionary stuff. Really needed those Bollinger Bands to figure that one out.
The best part is watching technical traders explain how their indicators "actually did signal elevated risk" if you squint at the chart sideways and ignore three months of false signals. Yeah, and a broken clock is right twice a day, but I still throw it in the garbage.
Meanwhile the fundamentals guys are pretending they nailed this call too, as if their supply-demand models accounted for the exact timing of Iranian missile strikes. Everyone's a genius in retrospect. Nobody had oil calls last week.
Charts measure price. Missiles change price. One of these things happens first, and it's never the f*cking chart.
Photo by sina drakhshani on Unsplash
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