Yemen forces reclaimed a key Red Sea port city from Iranian-backed Houthis. Oil jumped to $100 a barrel. Retail traders everywhere opened their charting software and drew lines connecting these two events like they were solving a murder.
They weren't.
The Red Sea handles roughly 12% of global oil trade. Houthis lose a port. Brent spikes. Every dipsh*t with a Robinhood account now thinks they understand supply chain logistics and Middle Eastern proxy warfare. They've read exactly one headline. They know three facts. Port city. Iran-backed. Oil goes up. That's enough to risk the college fund.
Here's what actually happened: A number went from $95 to $100. That's it. The number doesn't care about Yemen. The number doesn't care about Houthis. The number doesn't even know where the Red Sea is. The number moved because algorithms saw the word Iran in a headline and executed 47,000 trades before you finished reading the summary.
But sure, your technical analysis predicted this. Your support and resistance levels totally accounted for a military counteroffensive in a country you couldn't find on a map if it was the only country on the map. Your RSI divergence signaled that Yemen forces would reclaim strategic infrastructure. Makes perfect sense.
Oil markets remain on edge. Translation: The price might go up or down depending on whether more things happen or don't happen. Journalists get paid to write that sentence. You get paid nothing to believe it means something.
The risk of further escalation persists, which is financial media speak for we have no f*cking idea what comes next but we need to file 600 words by deadline. Further escalation could mean anything. More fighting. Less fighting. A strongly worded UN resolution. Literally anything that occurs after right now.
Your crude oil calls expire worthless Friday either way.
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