Over 5,000 arrests. A teenager loses a hand. Marine Le Pen promises fiscal turnaround. French students riot in the streets while day traders refresh their portfolio apps wondering if this presents a buying opportunity on croissant futures.
Le Pen polls as the frontrunner. Her campaign centers on fiscal policy overhaul. The youth of France respond by lighting things on fire and getting arrested in numbers that would impress a European soccer match. One kid is down a hand. The CAC 40 moved 0.3% on the news before everyone forgot France has a stock market.
Retail traders see the headline and start Googling "How to trade French political instability." They find seventeen YouTube videos promising to teach them the secret patterns that institutional investors use during civil unrest. All seventeen videos are wrong. The retail traders buy anyway.
The teenager who lost a hand will recover. The 5,000 arrested will face consequences ranging from fines to jail time. Le Pen will either win or lose. None of this information will help you pick a stock. None of it will predict next week's market movement. None of it matters to your overleveraged position in tech stocks that you bought because someone on Reddit said they looked "pretty bullish."
French students care about their future enough to riot. American retail traders care about their future enough to check if the riot creates a dip worth buying. One group is willing to lose a hand fighting for what they believe in. The other group loses both hands every earnings season and keeps coming back for more.
Le Pen vows fiscal turnaround. Students vow to keep protesting. Retail traders vow this time will be different. Two of these groups might actually follow through.
Photo by Tom Caillarec on Unsplash
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