Democrats swept the House, the Senate and a pile of governor's races. CNBC's economists say the economy barely noticed.
That's the headline. Voters rage-voted, and the economy got a haircut and a new lanyard.
Mark Zandi was worried about inflation, a soft labor market and geopolitical dangers before the election. He is still worried now. Consistency like that is rare. Most people at least change their worries after a landslide.
Trump keeps his executive power. Zandi's read on the tariffs: if Trump liked them before the election, why would he change his mind after? Fair question. The answer is that he won't. The tariffs are not a policy. They're a personality.
Morgan Stanley says the outcome was immaterial to its estimate. Think about that. A hundred million people stood in line, a Congress flipped, and a bank's spreadsheet didn't blink. Your vote has the market impact of a sneeze in a hurricane.
The market itself is confused. One report had the Nasdaq in correction territory and the Dow down more than 1,000 points. NPR says the Dow soared more than 1,500. Pick one. Retail traders already did. They picked both and bought the top of each.
Analysts say Democrats could curb fiscal expansion and ease pressure on yields. Others say they could reverse spending cuts and keep the deficit elevated. Both are confident. Both will be right in whichever direction the chart goes next.
Then there's AI. The data center buildout is the engine of the economy, and no election touches the engine. Democrats may add regulation. Goldman Sachs says a national moratorium looks unlikely under any outcome. So the machine keeps running, and you keep refreshing a ticker as if it were listening.
The economy's biggest forces are affordability, inflation and AI spending. None of them filed a ballot.
Go ahead and trade the midterms. The Dow didn't even show up to vote.
Photo by Clay Banks on Unsplash
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