Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC the Trump administration may let more Russian diesel onto the market. Analysts say the volumes in the Trump-Putin deal are tiny next to total demand. They won't move prices.
Read that again. A deal between two heads of state. Handshakes. Flags. Diesel measured in rounding errors.
Picture the summit. Two men who control nuclear arsenals sit across a table. After hours of talks, they agree to a gesture that would not change the price of a trucker's lunch.
Retail traders will still buy it. They will load up on refiners at 9:31 a.m. They will call it a catalyst. They will say "Russia diesel unlock" in a group chat with six people, four of them bots.
My chart shows a line. The line goes up, then down, then sideways. It has never once cared about Vladimir Putin. It does not care about Chris Wright. It cares about nothing, which makes it the healthiest member of this story.
Diesel demand is enormous. Trucks, trains, ships, tractors. The whole economy burns the stuff. This deal adds a few extra barrels to that fire, like tossing a cough drop into a swimming pool and waiting for the water to taste better.
The headline says "may." Not "will." The administration may let more through. I may also become a better person. Neither forecast comes with a date.
Somewhere a retail trader is sizing up a heating oil call option on this news. He has a spreadsheet. He has a theory. He has a wife who has stopped asking where the savings went.
Prices stay put. Putin keeps his deal. You keep your losses, and honestly, they suit you.
Photo by Frolicsome Fairy on Unsplash
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