Wholesale prices rose 0.4% in August. Economists predicted they would rise 0.4% in August. Everyone is very impressed with themselves.
The producer price index hit the exact number some guys with spreadsheets said it would hit. This is being reported as news. Not the price increase itself. The fact that the prediction matched the outcome. We've reached a point where financial journalism celebrates meteorologists who correctly guess it's raining while standing in the rain.
Retail traders saw this headline and immediately checked their portfolios. They wanted to know what 0.4% means for their three shares of whatever dogsh*t stock some guy on YouTube told them to buy. The answer is nothing. It meant nothing before the data came out. It means nothing now. It will mean nothing tomorrow when wholesale prices do something else and different economists predict that thing with equal confidence.
The Dow Jones consensus forecast exists so journalists have something to compare reality against. Without it they'd just have to report that prices went up. Can't have that. Too simple. Need a prediction to measure it against. Need analysts to weigh in. Need a full news cycle dedicated to whether 0.4% is good or bad or concerning or encouraging or whatever word makes people click.
Somewhere a day trader just panic-sold his entire position because he doesn't know what producer prices are but assumes they affect him personally. They don't. Somewhere else another trader just went all-in on puts because wholesale and retail are different words and that feels significant. It isn't.
The funniest part is the phrase "as expected" doing all that work in the headline. As expected by whom? For how long? Based on what? Doesn't matter. The number matched. The forecast was right. Everyone involved gets to feel smart about a data point that will be revised twice and forgotten by October.
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