Iran stockpiled oil for years waiting for sanctions to lift. The sanctions lifted. Turns out the world moved on.
China was supposed to be the buyer. China bought oil from Russia instead. Russia sells cheap because nobody else will touch it. Iran's sitting on millions of barrels priced like it's still 2019. The market doesn't care about your storage costs.
Every oil analyst on earth saw this coming. Iran didn't. They assumed demand would wait for them like a loyal dog. Demand found a new owner.
The technical setup here is perfect if you're an idiot. You've got resistance at "literally everyone else is pumping oil" and support at "we stored this in rusty tanks for half a decade." The breakout level is "convincing China to pay premium prices for inferior crude when they're already getting discounts from Moscow." Good luck with that chart pattern.
Retail traders love a sanctions relief story. They think geopolitics creates opportunity. It creates bagholders. You bought Iranian oil futures because you read a headline about diplomacy. You're now learning that supply and demand don't give a f*ck about your State Department press release.
Iran's strategy was to wait. The strategy worked. They waited so long the market left without them. Now they're holding inventory nobody wants at prices nobody will pay. It's like showing up to a party six hours late with warm beer.
The punchline is there isn't one. Iran has oil. The world has options. Storage isn't an asset when nobody's buying. But sure, tell me more about how sanctions relief is bullish.
Photo by sina drakhshani on Unsplash
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