Iran is running low on oil money. Analysts call this "dangerous." Desperate countries do desperate things. Like what? Nobody says. They just say it in a low voice and pitch you a pipeline stock.
That's the trade. A desperate regime, a jump in crude, and a list of "under-the-radar" names. Under the radar. Like a submarine that CNBC has already filmed from a helicopter.
I look at charts. Crude went up. Crude also went down. Crude has done both of these things for as long as there have been charts. Tehran's budget problems do not appear on a 50-day moving average. Neither does your confidence.
Here is the thesis, as I understand it. Iran gets poorer. Iran gets scarier. Oil gets pricier. You buy a mid-cap driller you found in a slideshow. Four steps, and every one of them requires you to predict the mood of a foreign government. You can't predict the mood of your own landlord.
Retail traders love a geopolitical story. It lets them feel like a general instead of a guy who bought calls at 3:55 on a Friday. You aren't in the situation room. You're in a group chat called "Oil Boyz," and one of the Boyz is a bot.
The "next leg of the energy trade" implies the first leg went well for you. Check your account. Check it again. I'll wait.
Iran may well get more desperate. Your portfolio got there first.
Photo by Richard Bell on Unsplash
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