Elon Musk told investors he has recused himself from both merger committees. He called it "an odd kabuki dance" where two groups talk and he can't be in the conversation.
Read that again. One man owns about 36% of SpaceX outright. He holds 19.8% of Tesla, including restricted shares. He is CEO of both. He has recused himself from the wedding of his own two companies.
That's not a recusal. That's the groom waiting in the parking lot while the bridesmaids negotiate.
SpaceX stock jumped 10% on this. Third-quarter revenue hit $14.6 billion, up 161%. Analysts expected $12.72 billion. Net income was $4.4 billion, after a $1.05 billion loss a year ago. Fine numbers. Real numbers.
But the chart didn't pop on revenue. It popped on a hint. Musk said a merger is not a certainty and that assuming otherwise would be overstating it. He also called the topic "tap dancing through a minefield." Retail traders heard "minefield" and bought calls.
Consider the mechanics. SpaceX is valued around $2 trillion. Tesla, around $1.5 trillion. Combine them and you get a $3.5 trillion company run by a man who isn't allowed in the room. Independent directors will decide. Independent from whom? The guy who picked them? Great question. Nobody is asking it. Everybody is buying.
Tesla, meanwhile, reports earnings after the bell today. Tesla's shares rose on the news that Tesla might be absorbed by a rocket company. That's the market saying the car part was always the awkward cousin.
Technical analysis offers no comment. A candle is a candle. Today's is green. Tomorrow's may be red. The committee's findings will arrive on a date nobody knows, in a format nobody can chart.
Retail traders will hold through all of it. They'll say they believe in the mission. The mission is a $3.5 trillion company whose largest shareholder watched the negotiations through a window.
Buy the rumor, sell the news, and send a fruit basket to the committee.
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