Vice President JD Vance posted six words on social media. The oil market lost nearly nine percent of its value.
Brent shed 8.7% to settle at $94.62. That is a price below $100, which the market treats as a personal victory.
The post said the reason Republicans lost is the war. Vance then dared people to argue the war was worth losing the Senate for six years. Nobody on the trading floor accepted. Traders prefer dares with no consequences, like buying calls on a pipeline.
Analysts now say Trump has a bigger incentive to cut a deal with Iran. That is the entire thesis. A man lost an election and the market assumed he would feel something.
The same war began February 28. Gasoline averages $4.12, up 39% since then. Americans needed eight months and a midterm to express a view on that. Crude needed one tweet.
Retail traders watched this happen with their usual dignity. Some were long. Some were short. All of them were wrong in the way that makes you wonder if they're doing it for the attention.
I draw lines on charts. The line went down. No politician, vice president, or pollster appears anywhere on my chart, and my results are indistinguishable from yours.
Vance may run in 2028. By then, the Iran war will have a new price, a new explanation, and a new crowd of retail traders confidently buying the dip.
Vance blamed the war for the loss, which is the first time a Republican has fired a barrel of oil and hit his own party.
Photo by sina drakhshani on Unsplash
Leave a Comment