The American consumer is resilient. Also strained. Both things are true, like a man who runs marathons and smokes.
Royal Caribbean says people keep booking cruises. Coca-Cola says people keep buying soda. UPS says people keep ordering things to be carried to their houses by a man in brown shorts.
Inflation is high. Spending continues. The analysts call this resilience. I call it a hostage situation where the hostage keeps tipping.
Consider the cruise. A family pays thousands of dollars to be trapped on a floating buffet with 5,000 strangers and a norovirus rumor. They do this while grocery prices make them whisper at the checkout. Then they buy the drink package.
That is not a consumer. That is a golden retriever with a credit card.
Coca-Cola is thriving because sugar water is the last affordable joy in America. Nobody can buy a house, but everybody can buy a Coke. It is the participation trophy of the middle class.
UPS says the packages keep coming. Somebody out there is financing a bidet on a payment plan, and it is arriving by truck. Hold that thought.
The headline also mentions "signs of strain." Of course it does. Every earnings story is a weather report written by people who have never been outside. Sunny, with a chance of recession. Pack accordingly.
I look at charts. Charts do not contain a single cruise ship. Charts do not care that Karen in Ohio upgraded to a balcony cabin on her third credit card.
Retail traders will read this and buy Royal Caribbean calls at the top. They will call it "conviction." Their spouses will call it a Tuesday.
Resilient consumers. Strained consumers. Same people, same cruise, same iceberg, and your options expire Friday.
Photo by Nisuda Nirmantha on Unsplash
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