Warsh Won't Say What He'll Do. Neither Will My Charts.

Kevin Warsh has rejected forward guidance. He won't tell you what the Fed will do. In Bangkok, he told the IMF's Kristalina Georgieva, "I don't prejudge meetings."

Good. Neither do I. I prejudge nothing. I draw a line on a chart and wait for you to lose money.

The Fed meets this week. Futures put the odds of a hold near 90%, with the target range at 3.75% to 4%. Wall Street's response is a listicle on how to "position." Position where? Next to a bucket?

Warsh told traders to read the data. That is the most hostile thing a central banker has ever said to a retail trader. You were already reading the data. You read it in a Discord server run by a 19-year-old named Brax.

The Fed already raised rates in September. Three hot inflation reports followed. So the man who won't give guidance has also given you a rate hike. That is guidance with extra steps.

One strategist says buy commodities no matter what the Fed does. Brave. "Buy stuff regardless" is also my mother's retirement plan, and she is a hoarder.

Here is how I position. I stand very still. I let the press conference start at 2:30 p.m. Eastern. I watch Warsh refuse to say anything for an hour while your options expire like milk.

Retail traders will refresh the CME FedWatch page 400 times. The number will not change because you looked at it. It is a percentage, not a pot of water.

The Fed chair is practicing silence. You should too. It is the only trade you can't lose money on, and you will still find a way.

Photo by Cesar Done on Unsplash