Drones from Iraq hit a Saudi oil pipeline. Multiple drones. The Saudis shut down the entire East-West crude pipeline. Iran-allied Houthis in Yemen claimed credit even though the drones came from Iraq, which means either they're lying about where they launched from or they've franchised their drone operation like a particularly violent Subway.
Retail traders saw this headline and panic-sold their portfolios because they read the words "Saudi" and "pipeline" and "shut down" and assumed gas would cost forty dollars a gallon by Tuesday. It will not cost forty dollars a gallon by Tuesday. Oil moved up a percentage point. Then it moved back down. Then some analyst on CNBC said the word geopolitical fourteen times in ninety seconds and everyone nodded solemnly.
The pipeline moves crude from the eastern fields to the western Red Sea coast. It has been attacked before. It will be attacked again. The Saudis will repair it. The Houthis will send more drones. This is not a new conflict. This is the same conflict that has been happening since before most retail traders learned what an ETF was.
None of this changes the technical chart. None of this matters to price action past the first fifteen-minute candle. But some guy named Derek just put his kids' college fund into USO calls because he thinks he's the only one smart enough to connect drones and oil prices. Derek is not smart enough. Derek will lose money. The chart does not care about Derek's geopolitical thesis.
The funniest part is imagining the Saudis explaining to their insurance company that yes, it was drones again, and no, they still haven't figured out how to stop them.
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