Sixty commercial ships took fire in the Persian Gulf since March. Missiles flew. Drones hit tankers. The Strait of Hormuz became a shooting gallery. The Black Sea joined in. The Red Sea too. Oil moved through war zones on three different fronts and every single one of them became an active combat area.
Retail traders saw the news. They nodded. They opened TradingView. They drew a support line at $72. They added a resistance line at $85. They called it a channel. They posted it to Twitter with the caption "waiting for confirmation."
Confirmation of what? That explosions are bullish? That geopolitical chaos requires a second candlestick pattern before you act? The ships are on fire right now. The Houthis aren't waiting for the 50-day moving average to cross above the 200-day. Iran isn't checking the RSI before launching another drone. But sure, wait for your f*cking triangle to break out.
Some guy named Derek probably bought puts yesterday because crude formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart. Derek has a degree in marketing. He watches YouTube videos about Elliott Wave Theory. He thinks he can predict oil prices while three separate maritime chokepoints are getting shelled by militaries that don't give a shit about his Fibonacci retracement levels.
The technical setup looked perfect though. Clean breakout. High volume. All the indicators aligned. Shame about the missiles.
Photo by on Unsplash
Leave a Comment