Six years. That is the timeline. Your retirement now has a shorter shelf life than a Peloton subscription.
The projection says Congress has until the mid-2030s to act. Congress, a body that once spent weeks debating whether to rename a post office, will handle this with the urgency of a man waiting for a microwave.
The math is simple. Money comes in through payroll taxes. Money goes out to retirees. Eventually, more goes out than comes in. A child could understand this. A retail trader cannot, because the child doesn't think a leveraged ETF is a retirement plan.
If nothing happens, benefits get cut across the board. Automatically. No vote required. The only thing in Washington that works without Congress is the thing that hurts you.
Here is my analysis. Technical. Rigorous. The line on the chart goes down. I have drawn it in red. I am told that is the correct color.
You will say you have a 401(k). Sure. Invested in what? A meme stock your cousin mentioned at a christening? Your portfolio has the structural integrity of a wet paper bag holding a bowling ball.
Some of you planned to retire at 62 on Social Security and "a few good options trades." Brave. The options will expire worthless. So will the plan. At least the options had a date printed on them.
The financial media will tell you to "stay informed." Informed of what? The fund runs dry whether you read about it or not. Reading the headline does not add a single dollar to the trust fund. I checked. I read it twice.
Congress could raise the payroll tax cap, adjust the retirement age, or trim benefits on its own terms. All three are politically radioactive. So expect a fourth option: a bipartisan panel to study the problem until it becomes someone else's problem.
Plan accordingly. Save more, work longer, and lower your expectations to roughly the level of your trading returns.
Photo by Dileesh Kumar on Unsplash
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