Ukraine sent more than 1,000 drones at Russia on Sunday. Set fire to an oil terminal in St. Petersburg. Putin's hometown. That's not a military strike. That's a surprise party nobody wanted.
Russia was the world's second-largest diesel supplier, behind America. Past tense. Ukraine took the silver medalist and put it in a wheelchair.
Now Trump is mad. Midterms are two weeks away. Diesel is at record highs. The man needs someone to blame, and he picked the guy being bombed.
Consider the timeline. Trump started a war with Iran in February. Diesel hit $4.859 a gallon by March 9, up roughly 28% in two weeks. Ukraine's refinery campaign has contributed since. But the first spike came from the other war. The one with Trump's name on it.
Trump's fix was to buy diesel from Russia. Reversing years of US policy. To lower pump prices. Ahead of an election. Analysts called it helpful but not a needle mover. Zelensky called it a weak decision of strong partners. Diesel futures dropped about 4%, then Ukraine launched another thousand drones and the deal went into the ditch.
Trump also said Zelensky should be replaced. Over refineries. Zelensky, who has a war on, was told to hold elections. Ukrainian law forbids elections during wartime. Trump knew this the way he knows everything: loudly.
Then came the energy ceasefire. Trump announced it on Oct. 11. Neither side confirmed it. Ukraine paused for three days. Russia kept bombing power plants. Zelensky said he was done. Trump called that a disgrace. The truce lasted shorter than a Dunkin' run.
Retail traders will now buy diesel futures. They'll say they're hedging geopolitical risk. They're not. They watched a man in a red tie yell about refineries and thought, this feels like a chart.
Putin says the strikes cost Russia about 1% of GDP. He also said nothing particularly significant happened. Pick one, Vlad.
A thousand drones, a burning terminal, a collapsed truce, and a president yelling at the victim. Your truck still costs six dollars a gallon to fill, and your portfolio still can't afford the truck.
Photo by Vony Razom on Unsplash
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