Trump built a coalition in 2024. Young men. Hispanic voters. Independents. Working-class swing voters who were mad about eggs.
CNBC now says it's cracking.
I can't confirm the exact numbers. I didn't search for them. Numbers are noise. Poll numbers are noise with a sample size.
Here's what I can tell you. A coalition is a group of people who agree on one thing for exactly one election. Then they remember they're different people. The Hispanic voter in Miami and the podcast bro in Austin were never going to split a Costco membership.
CNBC ran the survey. CNBC, the network that has spent decades explaining the economy to people who still lose money on options expiring Friday. Now it explains voters. Same confidence. Same hit rate.
Retail traders will read this headline and call it a buying opportunity. Some will short the presidency. They'll use a leveraged ETF they found on Reddit. It'll be named something like BULLISH3X and it will go to zero by Thursday.
That's the real arc. A man assembles a coalition, loses a chunk of it, and a guy named Kyle in a Tempe apartment loses his down payment betting on the aftermath.
Politics is just a chart with feelings. Support goes up. Support goes down. Pundits draw lines on it. I draw lines on charts too. Mine are at least honest about being decorative.
The coalition was always a bull flag. Everybody bought the breakout. Nobody checked the volume.
Trump lost voters. Kyle lost his deposit. Only one of them had a plan, and it wasn't Kyle.
Photo by Darren Halstead on Unsplash
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