Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Brazil hours before lawyers slapped him with a lawsuit. The tariffs took effect. The lawsuit took effect. Everyone involved will spend more on legal fees than the tariffs will ever collect.
Brazil exports coffee, soybeans, and iron ore. Canada gets threatened with 50% duties for exporting maple syrup and passive aggression. The experts quoted in this story say the tariffs may not hold up in court. The experts did not specify which court, which law, or which century's legal framework they were referencing. They just said may not hold up, which is the legal equivalent of shrugging.
Retail traders saw this headline and immediately bought calls on Home Depot because tariffs sound like construction. They will lose money. They always lose money. A guy in Michigan just took out a second mortgage to go long on Brazilian coffee futures because he heard Trump say Brazil on TV. He does not drink coffee. He will be bankrupt by September.
The lawsuit argues Trump cannot unilaterally impose tariffs without congressional approval. Trump argues he can do whatever he wants because he won an election. The courts will spend three years deciding who is right. By then the tariffs will have been repealed, reinstated, doubled, and turned into a cryptocurrency somehow.
Canada has not retaliated yet. They are too polite. They will issue a strongly worded statement and then go back to making poutine. Brazil will file a complaint with the WTO, which will schedule a hearing for 2029. The hearing will be cancelled due to lack of interest.
None of this matters. Your portfolio does not care about tariffs. It cares about whether you panic-sold at the bottom again, which you did.
Photo by Frolicsome Fairy on Unsplash
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