Trump announced that oil and gas prices will stay high until after the midterms. Not because of supply chains. Not because of refining capacity. Because of the election date on a calendar.
This marks the first time in history that a president has claimed fossil fuel prices obey the Gregorian calendar. OPEC must be thrilled to learn they've been obsolete this whole time. Turns out the real cartel was November all along.
The Iran war is apparently causing elevated energy prices. But those prices have read the Constitution and decided to wait until voter turnout drops below 40 percent before making any moves. Very civic-minded of crude oil to respect the democratic process like that.
Retail traders are already pricing this in. They're buying calls dated for the day after the election. Strike price doesn't matter. Expiry is doing all the work now. One guy on Reddit just mortgaged his house to go long on "post-midterm energy sympathy plays." His wife left him. The house wasn't even paid off.
Trump's theory suggests that geopolitical conflict adheres to the American electoral cycle. Iran presumably checks with the RNC before launching missiles. Putin waits for swing state polls. Xi Jinping has CNN's election map bookmarked.
The technical setup here is bulletproof. Head and shoulders pattern forming on the Senate forecast. RSI divergence between gas pump prices and approval ratings. Fibonacci retracement lands exactly on election day. It's all right there if you squint and have recently suffered a head injury.
Energy executives are now in a tough spot. Do they lower prices and prove Trump wrong? Or keep them high and prove him right? Either way some dipsh*t with a Robinhood account is going to claim he called it.
The midterms are in November. Oil futures don't trade in campaign promises.
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