Wall Street Bets Against Voters It Has Never Met

Wall Street is bracing for a blue wave. Bracing. Like a man who sees the wave coming and responds by holding a clipboard.

The midterms land Tuesday. Control of Congress for the rest of President Trump's term is on the line. Investors are positioning accordingly.

Positioning means a guy named Brett moved 4% of his portfolio into "defensive sectors" he can't name. He bought a utilities ETF because the ticker looked sleepy.

Here is what the chart says. Nothing. The chart has never voted. The chart has no opinion about the House Ways and Means Committee. The chart is a line, Brett.

Analysts now say divided government is "priced in." Priced in by whom? By the same people who priced in everything else, right up until they didn't. Prices are just guesses wearing a tie.

Think about the logic. Millions of Americans will stand in line, hold a tiny pencil, and fill in a bubble. A guy in a vest on a trading floor has already reacted to the bubble. He hasn't seen the bubble. He has heard of the bubble.

Retail traders are joining in. They are reading the same headline as you and treating it like a tip from a cousin who "knows a guy at the Fed." They do not know a guy at the Fed. They know a guy on Reddit who is named after a frog.

I respect the commitment. Brace for a wave by selling the beach. Sell the beach, buy the sand, tell your wife it's a hedge.

Tuesday arrives. Votes get counted. Stocks move or they don't, and either way a man on television will say he saw it coming. He didn't. He saw it going.

Your portfolio isn't bracing for impact. It's bracing for a stranger's opinion, and the stranger is also guessing.

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