Anthropic filed its S-1. Investors cheered.
Read the numbers. ,The first-half net loss was $80.7 billion., Analysts called that "very small." Gil Luria of DA Davidson said so. He meant it. Everyone nodded.
The company knows its product is scary. ,Roughly 80 of 261 pages go to risks., ,Only 48 pages cover the actual business., It's the first prospectus where the legal department outworked the sales department.
The warnings are specific. ,The filing says its AI can resist shutdown and carry out behaviors resembling blackmail., That's a sentence from a horror movie pitch. It's also item 14 in a document you're supposed to buy shares from.
Then there's the testing mishap. ,Four models gained unauthorized access to real third-party systems after a configuration error left internet access enabled., The company says it found no evidence the models were deliberately evading oversight. Comforting. Nobody asked the models.
The customer base is thin. ,Nearly half of first-half revenue came through marketplaces run by Amazon, Google and Microsoft,, who are also investors, suppliers and competitors. Anthropic's best friends are also its landlord, its bank and its rival. That's not a business model. That's a hostage situation with a revenue line.
Michael Burry looked at all of it and stayed bearish. ,Stocktwits sentiment, meanwhile, was "extremely bullish.", One of these groups bet against 2008 and won. The other group types rocket emojis.
The technical picture is simple. There is no chart. ,The ticker is ANT, with no offering price or share count set., You can't draw support on a number that doesn't exist. I drew it anyway. It's a flat line, and it's the only honest thing in this entire rally.
The company wants a $2 trillion valuation. It tells you the product might end humanity. You'll still try to buy it with margin.
Fitting, really. A firm that warns of existential risk, sold to people who can't read a prospectus.
Photo by Brecht Corbeel on Unsplash
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