Brian Fitzpatrick represents Bucks County, Pennsylvania. He is a Republican. He sometimes votes against Donald Trump. Democrats call this a weakness. Voters have called it a job for years.
Now Democrats smell blood. They smelled it in the last few cycles too. Fitzpatrick kept winning. The blood was his own sweat, probably.
Consider the strategy. Fitzpatrick votes like a Republican when Republicans are watching. He votes like a Democrat when Democrats are watching. Nobody is ever sure who is watching. It is the political version of a covered call. Boring. Profitable. Lasts forever.
Swing seats are a technical pattern. Price bounces between two lines. Traders call it a range. Fitzpatrick has traded in that range since 2017. He is the only thing in Pennsylvania with tighter Bollinger Bands than the Eagles' secondary.
Democrats say this year is different. Every year is different. That is what you say when you need donations.
Here is my analysis. Incumbents with a brand beat challengers with a spreadsheet. Fitzpatrick has a brand. It says: I am annoyed by both parties, like you. That is a monopoly in the suburbs.
Retail traders will pile into the prediction markets on this one. They will bet their rent on a House race in Delaware Valley suburbs. They will cite a poll. The poll will have a margin of error larger than their net worth.
You cannot time a swing seat. You also cannot time the market. You cannot time your own bowel movements, Kevin. That is why you wear the dark pants.
The Democrats may win. The Republicans may win. Fitzpatrick may win while losing, somehow, by finishing second in both primaries and still showing up to the swearing-in.
Either way, the outcome will matter less than your 401(k) allocation. Which also does not matter. Which is the whole point.
Fitzpatrick will probably win. Your portfolio will probably lose. Only one of those has a voting record.
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