The market overreacted to Meta's earnings. Some guy with a newsletter says his long-term thesis remains unchanged. This is what passes for urgent financial guidance in 2026.
Picture the retail trader who panic-sold yesterday at 3:47 PM. He read the guidance. He felt something in his chest. He clicked sell. Today he's reading this reassuring update about how actually everything is fine and nothing has changed. He's learning an expensive lesson about the difference between price and value. The lesson costs him $4,300.
Nothing we saw today changes the long-term thesis. What a f*cking statement. Translation: We were wrong about the short term but we're definitely right about the unknowable future. It's the investment equivalent of missing a free throw and telling everyone you're still great at basketball. Technically true. Completely useless.
The plan is to hold. The plan is always to hold when you're down. When you're up the plan is to rebalance or take profits or some other verb that means sell. When you're down the plan transforms into patient capital allocation with a multi-year time horizon. It's incredible how long-term everyone's thesis becomes the moment they're underwater.
Meta reported numbers. The market moved. A newsletter told subscribers not to worry. Tomorrow a different newsletter will tell different subscribers to worry a lot. Both will cite the same earnings report. Both will claim vindication in eighteen months regardless of what happens.
The overreaction has been noted and corrected by someone with a plan. The plan involves doing nothing and calling it strategy. The thesis remains intact, which is convenient since the thesis is vague enough to survive any earnings report short of Meta announcing they're pivoting to selling pencils door-to-door.
Retail bought the dip yesterday and the dip kept dipping, but sure, the market overreacted.
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