Democrats won Congress. Solar stocks jumped. First Solar, Sunrun and Enphase all caught the sugar rush.
Traders saw blue and bought panels. Panels do not vote.
The same story warns that policy, financing and data-center demand remain risks. Read that again. The rally and the warning ran in the same article. The market read the first half and stopped. Reading is hard when green candles are involved.
Take Sunrun. It sells rooftop solar, which depends on financing. Financing depends on interest rates. Interest rates depend on people in rooms you will never enter. You depend on a brokerage app that sends you confetti.
Enphase makes microinverters. Most of you could not find yours with a map and a priest.
First Solar needs policy to stay friendly. Policy is a mood. Congress has the attention span of a golden retriever at a tennis tournament.
Then comes data-center demand. The theory says server farms will devour electricity, and solar will feed them. The theory has a spreadsheet. The spreadsheet has an intern. The intern has doubts.
The chart did what charts do. It gapped up on a headline and invited you in. Technical analysis has a term for this. The term is "Tuesday."
Some of you bought the top of this rally because an election result felt like a sunrise. Congratulations on your clean energy portfolio. It runs entirely on hope, which is renewable but unprofitable.
Sell the headline, buy the dip, and cry in a rooftop array. The sun will rise tomorrow, and your cost basis will still be up there with it.
Photo by on Unsplash
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