Elon Musk may merge two companies he already runs. Wall Street is treating this like a royal wedding. It is a man moving money from his left pocket to his right pocket while forty lawyers bill by the hour.
The long road includes negotiations. With whom? Elon. Across the table sits Elon. Elon will drive a hard bargain, then concede everything, then post about it at 3 a.m.
Regulatory reviews come next. The SEC will look at this. Delaware will have feelings. Tesla shareholders will ask if they get a vote, and the answer will be a rocket emoji.
Retail traders are already positioning. One guy refinanced his Corolla to buy Tesla calls expiring Friday. Merger talks take years. Friday is Friday. His math has the structural integrity of a Cybertruck panel.
Earnings are now in the rearview mirror, which is where traders should keep their money, their dignity, and their brokerage app. Earnings at least had numbers. Merger chatter has only vibes, and vibes are what retail traders trade on anyway.
Analysts will build models. They will assign a synergy value to putting a car company and a rocket company in the same building. The synergy is that one of them can launch the other. Nobody asked for that.
Chatter is not a deal. Chatter is a man clearing his throat. Traders will bet their rent on the throat clearing.
Buy the rumor, sell the news, and enjoy explaining to your landlord that the merger was spiritually priced in.
Photo by Brecht Corbeel on Unsplash
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