Lula and Bolsonaro spent the final day rallying supporters. Both men are asking Brazilians to pick a side. Polls say the country is split down the middle.
The right-wing incumbent outperformed expectations in round one. Pollsters had him losing by more. Pollsters also have jobs, somehow.
Neck and neck. That is the phrase. Two men, one country, and a margin of error wide enough to park a Petrobras tanker in.
Retail traders are now "positioning." They bought EWZ in August because a podcast said Latin America was "the next trade." They cannot name the capital of Brazil. They will guess Rio. It is Brasília.
Their thesis is simple. If Lula wins, the real moves. If Bolsonaro wins, the real moves. They will be right about one of those, and it will not matter, because they will have sold at the open on Monday.
The technical picture is clear. There is no picture. I drew a line on the chart, and the line asked to be left alone.
Two septuagenarian-adjacent politicians shouting at crowds will decide your portfolio. Lula is 76. Bolsonaro is 67. Your retirement is in the hands of men who both think the other one is the problem.
Brazil's voters will decide this with ballots. You will decide yours with a limit order you set wrong.
Sunday night, one man will give a victory speech and the other will give a lawyer a call. Your brokerage app will send a push notification titled "Big moves in Brazil." The big move will be your balance, and the country will not have noticed.
Photo by Matheus Câmara da Silva on Unsplash
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