Lula beat Bolsonaro in the runoff. First time since 1989 that anyone lost round one and still won round two.
Think about that. Thirty-odd years of direct elections. Nobody pulled it off. Lula did it at 77, after a stint in prison and a conviction annulled by the courts.
Bolsonaro reportedly won't concede. Reportedly. I can't verify his feelings, but I can verify his Twitter habits, and they suggest a man drafting a long, loud message to no one.
Markets will now react. Analysts will say the real is volatile. The real has been volatile since before you learned what a candlestick was. It was volatile when you bought that call option on a Brazilian ETF because a guy in a Discord said "emerging markets are so back."
Retail traders will draw a trendline through this election. They will find support at the first round and resistance at the runoff. They will call it a head and shoulders. It is a head and a shoulder, and the shoulder is Bolsonaro's, and it is cold.
Here is my technical analysis. Lula was behind. Then he was ahead. The chart goes up and to the right, which is also how every guy at your brokerage describes his portfolio right before the margin call.
Brazil has 156 million voters. Not one of them checked your price target first.
Bolsonaro can keep refusing. The election doesn't need his signature, and neither does your options chain, which expired worthless at 4:00 PM.
Photo by Matheus Câmara da Silva on Unsplash
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