Brian Fitzpatrick represents a Pennsylvania swing district. He keeps winning it. Democrats keep calling this the year he loses it.
That is a hobby. Like birdwatching, but with more mailers.
Fitzpatrick is a Republican who votes against Trump sometimes. That makes him a moderate. In Washington, a moderate is a man who disappoints both sides at equal volume and gets reelected for it.
Democrats say this election is the opportunity. They said that last time. They said it the time before. Opportunity is the word politicians use when they have nothing else to sell.
Here is the technical read. A support level holds when buyers keep showing up. Fitzpatrick's voters keep showing up. Bucks County does not care about your narrative. It cares about its mailbox being full of glossy paper that says the other guy hates your grandmother.
Retail traders will tell you the trend is about to break. They said that about Nvidia at every level on the way up. They also said it about their ex. Both are still moving without them.
Will Fitzpatrick keep his seat? Maybe. Maybe not. Anyone who gives you a percentage is selling a newsletter.
I do not have a position. I have a dog, and he has more conviction than either party's pollsters.
Swing districts are the only honest markets left. Nobody inside them believes the story. They just vote and go home.
If Fitzpatrick loses, Democrats will call it a mandate. If he wins, they will call it a mistake in the data. Either way, you will still be down on your options.
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