Israel votes Tuesday. The Knesset has 120 seats. Winning takes 61. Polls say nobody gets there.
Not Benjamin Netanyahu. Not Gadi Eisenkot. Both blocs land short, and the kingmakers are the small parties and the Arab parties.
Coalition math is the only math in the world where 59 plus 59 equals "let's talk in six weeks."
Parties need 3.25% of the national vote to enter parliament. That is the minimum. Miss it by a hair and your entire movement becomes a very expensive group chat.
Eisenkot's opposition bloc stitches together Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman and Yair Golan. Four egos, one prime ministerial chair. Great odds. Same odds as your options trade.
Meanwhile, the IDF brass reportedly fears Netanyahu may hit Iran before voting day. Donald Trump had to say publicly that no attack was coming overnight. When the U.S. president issues a "no, not tonight" statement, the campaign is going well.
NPR says tens of thousands of expats will fly home to vote, because Israel does not allow absentee ballots. They will board planes to cast one vote each. You wouldn't drive to the bank to fix your own margin call.
If it deadlocks, Israel gets another election next year. A rerun. The only sequel nobody greenlit.
Now the part where I am supposed to explain what this means for oil, the shekel and your portfolio. It means nothing. Your portfolio is a lottery ticket with a login screen.
The chart for Israeli politics shows a flat line at 60. Technical analysts call that consolidation. Voters call it Tuesday.
Retail traders will still buy a "Middle East ETF" at 9:31 a.m. Wednesday. They will do it based on an exit poll from Channel 12 and a feeling.
Israel needs 61 seats to form a government. You needed one good trade, and you're still waiting.
Photo by Rafael Nir on Unsplash
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